{
  "status": "ok",
  "n_training": 2197,
  "positive_days": 780,
  "validation": {
    "method": "5-split expanding-window time-series validation",
    "roc_auc": 0.9171164099041639,
    "brier": 0.11121791294225705,
    "status": "exploratory"
  },
  "baselines": {
    "monthly_auc": 0.5241167042815555,
    "persistence_auc": 0.7971052889804731
  },
  "associations": [
    {
      "key": "wave_period_s",
      "label": "Wave period",
      "coefficient": 1.8618460899304163,
      "odds_ratio": 6.435606520139244
    },
    {
      "key": "wave_max_ft",
      "label": "Wave height",
      "coefficient": 1.5358904439607024,
      "odds_ratio": 4.64546021081937
    },
    {
      "key": "gust_max_mph",
      "label": "Max gust",
      "coefficient": -0.6170554424713967,
      "odds_ratio": 0.5395307803308997
    },
    {
      "key": "tide_range_ft",
      "label": "Tide range",
      "coefficient": -0.5694692662658479,
      "odds_ratio": 0.5658256617895897
    },
    {
      "key": "season_cos",
      "label": "Season (cos)",
      "coefficient": -0.5511013136517785,
      "odds_ratio": 0.5763147574383486
    },
    {
      "key": "wind_max_mph",
      "label": "Max wind",
      "coefficient": 0.48947948787157575,
      "odds_ratio": 1.6314668006511714
    },
    {
      "key": "season_sin",
      "label": "Season (sin)",
      "coefficient": -0.3692121740968325,
      "odds_ratio": 0.6912787234504604
    },
    {
      "key": "precip_in",
      "label": "Rain",
      "coefficient": 0.15675239791470777,
      "odds_ratio": 1.1697059564085084
    },
    {
      "key": "swell_max_ft",
      "label": "Swell height",
      "coefficient": 0.13352894189311254,
      "odds_ratio": 1.1428543420246777
    },
    {
      "key": "swell_period_s",
      "label": "Swell period",
      "coefficient": -0.028966966597439,
      "odds_ratio": 0.9714485541877433
    }
  ],
  "research_context": {
    "measured_ndbc": {
      "pcbf1_obs_count": {
        "rows": 2010,
        "pct": 91.5
      },
      "pcbf1_wind_max_mph": {
        "rows": 2010,
        "pct": 91.5
      },
      "pcbf1_gust_max_mph": {
        "rows": 2010,
        "pct": 91.5
      },
      "pcbf1_air_temp_max_f": {
        "rows": 1985,
        "pct": 90.4
      },
      "pcbf1_air_temp_min_f": {
        "rows": 1985,
        "pct": 90.4
      },
      "pcbf1_water_temp_mean_f": {
        "rows": 1987,
        "pct": 90.4
      },
      "pcbf1_pressure_min_mb": {
        "rows": 1988,
        "pct": 90.5
      },
      "42039_obs_count": {
        "rows": 1218,
        "pct": 55.4
      },
      "ndbc42039_wave_max_ft": {
        "rows": 1174,
        "pct": 53.4
      },
      "ndbc42039_wave_mean_ft": {
        "rows": 1174,
        "pct": 53.4
      },
      "ndbc42039_dominant_period_max_s": {
        "rows": 1169,
        "pct": 53.2
      },
      "ndbc42039_average_period_mean_s": {
        "rows": 1174,
        "pct": 53.4
      },
      "ndbc42039_wind_max_mph": {
        "rows": 1218,
        "pct": 55.4
      },
      "ndbc42039_gust_max_mph": {
        "rows": 1218,
        "pct": 55.4
      },
      "ndbc42039_water_temp_mean_f": {
        "rows": 715,
        "pct": 32.5
      },
      "ndbc42039_pressure_min_mb": {
        "rows": 1218,
        "pct": 55.4
      }
    },
    "retrospective_tropical_cyclone": {
      "nearest_storm_id": {
        "rows": 104,
        "pct": 4.7
      },
      "nearest_storm_name": {
        "rows": 104,
        "pct": 4.7
      },
      "nearest_storm_status": {
        "rows": 104,
        "pct": 4.7
      },
      "nearest_storm_category": {
        "rows": 104,
        "pct": 4.7
      },
      "tc_min_distance_mi": {
        "rows": 104,
        "pct": 4.7
      },
      "tc_max_wind_kt_within_500mi": {
        "rows": 104,
        "pct": 4.7
      },
      "tc_active_storms_within_500mi": {
        "rows": 104,
        "pct": 4.7
      },
      "tc_within_50mi": {
        "rows": 104,
        "pct": 4.7
      },
      "tc_within_100mi": {
        "rows": 104,
        "pct": 4.7
      },
      "tc_within_200mi": {
        "rows": 104,
        "pct": 4.7
      },
      "tc_within_300mi": {
        "rows": 104,
        "pct": 4.7
      },
      "tc_within_500mi": {
        "rows": 104,
        "pct": 4.7
      }
    },
    "policy": "Measured NDBC and HURDAT2 fields are retained in model_training.csv for research. HURDAT2 best-track fields are retrospective and are not included in the operational feature set."
  },
  "note": "Association/prediction research only. Never overrides posted beach flags. Measured NDBC fields are contextual; retrospective HURDAT2 best-track fields are not operational predictors."
}